Why do casinos make money?
Well yes, very often the odds are stack in their
favor. But there is a more crucial factor,
casinos do not run out of money as you do, or do
not bail when their bank goes low.
At some point, you
will stop playing. If you were lucky and won
a lot of money, you may decide to call it a night.
But very often, you will stop because you ran out
of money or are so low that you figure you should
stop before losing everything.
If your account
was limitless and that you could manage to get
odds that favor you, then casinos would go
bankrupt.
In Money Management you concentrate on odds and
stakes. The idea is to imitate the casino in
having allot more money then what you are
risking, so that you can regain you losses and
keep a steady and slow increment in your bankroll.
A constant amongst
efficient strategies are that you must have a
large fund in comparison to your standard bet,
and that your system allows you to regain your
losses.
The only true
systems in our opinions are the Martingale and
the systems that derive from that principle.
One thing to
remember is that a money management system is not
a certitude and that in the end, it cannot defy
the odds but only assure that the casino does not
win because it ran you out of money.
Here are the typical Money Management Betting
Systems:
The
Martingale
The MII and Slowed
Martingale
5 highly vehiculated false "systems" to
be avoided
The
D'Alembert
The Contra D'Alembert
The Oscar's Grind
The
Progressive Betting System - 2 Level
The
Progressive Betting System - 5 Level
The Martingale (Top)
This one of the most basic and more widely spread
money management system. Unfortunately it can
rarely be used in Black Jack anymore, however it
is still worth exploring since it best
illustrates the idea behind money management.
It works like
this:
You double your stake, when you lose, and start
all over again, when you win. Quite simple
actually. This means that you will be ensured a
profit, when you win.
Let's make an example: (odds 3) (betting on
sports)
You bet 100$ on a
home victory at odds 3, but you lose. Next time,
you bet 200$ on another game at odds 3. Here you
win, meaning a profit of 200$x3-200$-100$=300$.
If you had lost, you should have increased the
stake to 400$, then 800$ etc. No matter when you
win, you will win back what you have lost plus a
lot more in profit.
As can be seen from the graph below, having
strong monetary backup is crucial. Most sources
agree that in Black Jack, when using basic
strategy, the odds stacked against you are of 50.25%
This means that 11 consecutive losses will happen
once every 2047 hands you play. If this is an
acceptable risk to you, it means that you will
need 2047 times your standard bet as funds ready
to back up a loosing streak.
Losing
Streak Progression Each Turn
|
Odds
Of Losing Streak Happening
|
Starting
Bet
|
1$
|
5$
|
For
50%
against you
|
For
60%
against you
|
1*
|
2
|
10
|
25% |
43.56% |
2
|
4
|
20
|
12.5% |
28.7496% |
3
|
8
|
40
|
6.25% |
18.97474% |
4
|
16
|
80
|
3.125% |
12.52333% |
5
|
32
|
160
|
1.5625% |
8.26540% |
6
|
64
|
320
|
0.78125% |
5.45516% |
7
|
128
|
640
|
0.39063% |
3.60041% |
8
|
256
|
1280
|
0.19531% |
2.37627% |
9
|
512
|
2560
|
0.09766% |
1.56834% |
10
|
1024
|
5120
|
0.04883% |
1.03510% |
Total
|
2047
|
10235
|
|
* Row 1 being the first
hand after a loss (or a second consecutive loss)
The main problem is that the stakes grow very big
very fast, when losing several times in a row, i.e.
you need a very large betting fund or "bankroll".
Another problem is the fact that the bookies and
casinos operate with maximum bet limits.
To put a stop on the use of this very simple
system, casinos instated minimums and limits on
black jack and roulette tables and therefore,
unless you can find a black jack table with a
very wide limit range, you will not be able to
apply this system.
Originally Martingale was used on Red/Black when
playing Roulette (odds 2.00). This means that the
risk is minimized, but also that the profit at
each progression end will be only the starting-stake.
A Martingale II Variation (Top)
It is easy to see how the Martingale grows
faster and faster as you keep loosing and why you
require so much money to support yourself through
loosing streaks.
The main problem
with the Martingale is that it seeks to earn you
money even when you are loosing. Though not a bad
idea, this is unnecessary and greatly affects the
amount you need as back up.
The MII only seeks
to make you make money on the second hand after a
loss.
The MII simply seeks to have you regain the money
lost without attempting to gain money even when
you loose. You only double after the first loss,
and after that you simply bet the amount that you
have lost so far.
This means that
the first win after a loosing streak of more then
2 losses will not earn you anything but only
cover what you have lost so far. This is based on
the fact that long loosing streaks are
statistically less probable and therefore on the
second hand you bet 10 rather then only 5. All
subsequent hands, you will bet the total that you
have lost so far, which comes down to doubling.
Making money when you loose is the catch phrase
that draws people to the Martingale, but the
essential here is not to make money when you
loose, but to be able to afford a loosing streak.
Compare the
progression between the 2 systems from the graph
below, on a 50% risk. The total amount needed for
the Martingale is 10,235 while the MII is only
6680.
Losing
Streak Progression each turn
|
Starting Bet
|
Martingale at 5$
|
MII at 5$
|
For 50%
against you
|
1* |
10 |
10 |
25% |
2 |
20 |
15 |
12.5% |
3 |
40 |
30 |
6.25% |
4 |
80 |
60 |
3.125% |
5 |
160 |
120 |
1.5625% |
6 |
320 |
240 |
0.78125% |
7 |
640 |
480 |
0.39063% |
8 |
1280 |
960 |
0.19531% |
9 |
2560 |
1920 |
0.09766% |
10 |
5120 |
3840 |
0.04883% |
Total |
10235 |
6680 |
|
A Slower Martingale
aimed at only recuperating lost money,
with 0 Gain on losing streaks
|
Starting
Bet
|
MSlow at 5$
|
For 50%
against you
|
1*
|
5
|
25%
|
2
|
10
|
12.5%
|
3
|
20
|
6.25%
|
4
|
40
|
3.125%
|
5
|
80
|
1.5625%
|
6
|
160
|
0.78125%
|
7
|
320
|
0.39063%
|
8
|
640
|
0.19531%
|
9
|
1280
|
0.09766%
|
10
|
2560
|
0.04883%
|
Total
|
5120
|
|
Losing Streak
Progression beyond the 11th subsequent
loss for 66% odds against you
|
Starting
Bet
|
MSlow at 5$
|
For 66%
against you
|
11
|
5120
|
0.68317%
|
12
|
10240
|
0.45089%
|
13
|
20480
|
0.29759%
|
14
|
40960
|
0.19641%
|
15
|
81920
|
0.12963%
|
16
|
163840
|
0.08556%
|
17
|
327680
|
0.05647%
|
18
|
655360
|
0.03727%
|
19
|
1310720
|
0.02460%
|
20
|
2621440
|
0.01623%
|
Total
|
5,242,880
|
|
The second Graph above shows you a slowed down
version of the Martingale. This one has
absolutely no doubling. The total amount of money
needed to support this is 5115 or 5120 if
counting the very first loss.
The last graph
shows you, for 66% odds against you, what amount
of money will be needed to cover the arbitrarily
set safety of a once in 2000 hands loosing steaks.
Only at the 17 turn (18th loss) do you approach
this barrier. The amount of money necessary to
cover this loosing streak would be in the sum of
655,360$. The Martingale systems is often boasted
as capable of beating any odds however a Black
Jack player can easily play 500 hands in a night,
so the importance of enduring the test of time
and therefore making sure that you have enough
money to support big losses is crucial.
This sums up the Martingale. And though not
applicable to Black Jack unless you are playing
on a limitless table, the Martingale is very much
the Money Management 101 system to learn, in
order to understand the principle behind Money
Management.
(Top)
A dose of
realism
|
As stated above, the
Martingale can rarely be used in casino
situations because of table limits.
Although promising, the Martingale
technique will eventually fail. What you
have to hope is that the money earned
will compensate for that loosing streak.
We defined an arbitrarily insurmountable
loosing streak probability we are willing
to accept being of 1 in 2000, in our case
it is actually 1 in 2047 on the 11th
loss, because the 10th loss did not meat
our criteria, being only 1 in 1024.
Should you survive all losses and play
2046 hands before facing a bad streak of
11 consecutive losses, you would earn $10,235.
Every Martingale winning hand earns you
your minimum bet, every time, even after
a losing streak. With the Martingale
there is no loss, except the maximum
losing streak you are willing to accept
as risk. Unfortunately, the cost of the
fatal losing streak is also of $10,235.
In our case. Mathematically, this will
balance out, always. You
can use this system and try to beat the 1
in 2000 odds, but this is not what this
system is for. This system is meant to
stretch your game time without any loss,
so that you can turn the odds in your
favor, through card counting and basic
strategy. There is a high risk of loosing
much. The idea is that if you need 50
hands before getting what we call a
"rich deck", then for 50 hands,
your risk of loosing everything is of 2.44260%.
This means that the more there are people
at the table, the faster you will get to
a rich deck, if there is a rich deck to
be had, because every turn the number of
cards spent will be much more, lowering
the number of turns and there for, your
risk factor.
|
D'Alembert (Top)
Also known as The Pyramid. Another Casino Roulette
Strategy, not as famous as Martingale
though. In the original version, you increase the
stake by 1 unit when you lose, and drop it by 1,
when you win. Could look like this:
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
-3
|
3
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
-2
|
3
|
6
|
+1
|
The odds in the
example is 2 (red/black from roulette).
In betting, it
might be a good idea to use higher odds like 3 or
4. If you want to minimize risk, you can start
all over on the starting stake, if you have a
profit when you win (instead of just dropping the
stake by 1). Follow this example: (odds 4)
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
-3
|
3
|
0
|
-6
|
4
|
16
|
+6
|
1
|
...
|
...
|
To minimize risk,
simply start all over again, when you win,
instead of just dropping the stake by 1.
D'Alembert is a
widely used strategy, and to begin with it is
very likely to yield a profit. In the long run,
however, the bottom line usually shows a loss.
This strategy is
not actually based on any principle, you may just
as well bet anything you want randomly.
Contra D'Alembert (Top)
The same idea as D'Alembert, but here you
increase the stake if you win, and drop it if you
lose.
Example (odds 2):
You might be
telling yourself both system can't work! Well you
would be right. So which one works and which one
doesn't?
The answer is
neither.
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
2
|
+1
|
2
|
4
|
+3
|
3
|
6
|
+6
|
4
|
0
|
+2
|
3
|
...
|
...
|
Basically the only
thing these 2 system do is make you spend more
then you probably would normally. This system
will come out on top in win/lose/win/lose
situation. Where has the normal D'Alembert will
be good in streaks of win and lose.
Either way, this
is not a system but a ritual. If it makes you
feel better to believe your approach works then I
guess you can try this and believe it will come
through for you.
Oscar's Grind (Top)
The originator, only known as Oscar, told
reporters that he gambled a lot and had never had
a losing trip. Want to know why? Then read on!
Converted from
Roulette black/red into betting, meaning odds 2.00.
The goal is to win
one unit at the end of each progression and,
whatever larger bet might be dictated by the
other betting rules, will be dropped to a bet
just large enough to gain one unit. This rule
overrides.
Bet 1 is one unit.
If Bet 1 is lost, Bet 2 is one unit.
After a loss, the bet is the same as the bet just
lost.
After a win, the bet is one more than the bet
just won.
Example
Round
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
2,00
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
2,00
|
1
|
0
|
-2
|
3
|
2,00
|
1
|
0
|
-3
|
4
|
2,00
|
1
|
0
|
-4
|
5
|
2,00
|
1
|
2
|
-3
|
6
|
2,00
|
2
|
0
|
-5
|
7
|
2,00
|
2
|
4
|
-3
|
8
|
2,00
|
3
|
6
|
0
|
9
|
2,00
|
1
|
?
|
?
|
- First four bets
are lost, and player is down 4 units.
- Next bet is once again 1 unit, according to
Rule 3.
- Next bet is 2 units (after a win), according to
Rule 4.
- Next bet is 3 units (after a win), according to
Rule 4.
- Next bet is 1 unit, according to Rule 4,
overriding Rule 1, which would say 4 units.
This system, on
top of not working, is so complex that you will
not have time to count cards and may make
mistakes in your basic strategy.
Once again, this
is not the magical formula it claims to be.
Progressive Betting System -
Level 2 (Do not use this) (Top)
This kind of "system" is what makes
losers seem like winners. We recommend avoiding
these types of so called "systems". We
explain these systems so that you can understand
why they are useless and that you avoid them.
To use this system
simply decide on a minimum and maximum bet. Then
bet the smaller amount after a loss and the
larger amount after a win. For example, say you
set your minimum bet at $5 and your maximum at $15.
Start with a $5 dollar bet. If you win that hand
you bet $15 your next wager. You then continue to
bet $15 until you lose. After any loss you return
to your minimum bet of $5.
Example
Round
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
-5
|
2
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
10
|
3
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
15
|
4
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
-20
|
5
|
2,00
|
5
|
10
|
15
|
6
|
2,00
|
15
|
0
|
-30
|
7
|
2,00
|
5
|
10
|
-25
|
8
|
2,00
|
15
|
30
|
10
|
9
|
2,00
|
15
|
?
|
?
|
This entire system
bases itself on the false idea that winning and
losing streaks will happen and fails to
anticipate that in every single hand, you have 50%
chances of winning or loosing.
You may just as
well alternate between the $5 and $15 bets back
and forth and get the same result. A "win,
lose, win, lose win, lose" situation with
this approach will put you in the hole faster
then you can say "Damn this Progressive
Betting System!".
Progressive Betting System -
Level 5 (Do not use this) (Top)
Another superstition baptized system by people
who believe that lining-up lighters on a table
will bring luck there way.
Again this is
based on the false concept of winning and losing
streaks. This is based on a 1,2,3,5 back to 1
progression.
Example: For a $5
player, the betting levels would be $5,10,15, and
25. With this system you start with your $5 bet
and progress to the next level when you win a
hand. If you lose a hand you drop back down to
your original $5 wager. If you win four hands in
a row you should then drop back down to your
original $5 wager, hence the 1,2,3,5 back to 1
progression.
This approach to
managing money almost seems as though it was
spawned from a casino owner seeking to make you
lose your money.
Example
Round
|
Odds
|
Stake
|
Win
|
Profit
|
1
|
2,00
|
5
|
10
|
+5
|
2
|
2,00
|
10
|
0
|
10
|
3
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
15
|
4
|
2,00
|
5
|
10
|
10
|
5
|
2,00
|
10
|
20
|
0
|
6
|
2,00
|
15
|
30
|
+5
|
7
|
2,00
|
25
|
0
|
-20
|
8
|
2,00
|
5
|
0
|
-25
|
9
|
2,00
|
5
|
10
|
-20
|
You can easily sum
it up by saying:
"When you win, risk it all until you lose,
when you have won allot and fell you are bound to
lose, go back to a small wager. When you've lost
everything you've earned, go back to a small
wager."
-If I bet 5 and win I have my 5 and a five dollar
profit.
-I bet it all, my entire 10, profit and
investment alike.
-If I win, I have a 15 dollar profit and my
original 5.
-I keep my $5 investment and bet my entire $15
profit.
-If I win I have my original $5 and a $30 profit.
- I put 5$ of the profit aside and bet the rest
of my profit.
This is aimed at
making you bet more then you were originally
willing to bet. The idea is not to accumulate
profit but to use the profit to fuel bigger
wagers.
A Proven Roulette
Strategy
Want to risk relatively little money on a chance
to cash in big?
How does a 35 to 1 payoff sound to you? This
strategy uses straight-up inside bets that payoff
at 35 to 1 if your number is rolled. Most
Internet casinos offer $1 chips and $5 minimum
inside bets and this is a good place to start.
First, choose five favorite numbers. Place a $1
chip on each of them. Repeat that same bet until
you win. (you have enough chips for 8 rolls).
When you hit, you'll win 35 chips.
Now, divide those 35 chips over your five
numbers, seven on each number. If you hit again,
the payoff will be 35 x 7 = $245!
At this point, you can do one of two things:
1. You could quit, take the money and run.
2. Or you could put 20 chips on each of your five
numbers. This bet will cost you $100 but you
could collect $700 if one number hits. If it
doesn't hit, you still have $145 in your pocket
from the previous bet. It all depends on how
lucky you're feeling!
(Top)
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|